{"id":18188,"date":"2013-07-03T09:47:21","date_gmt":"2013-07-03T09:47:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/solplanet.net\/solar-pv-projections-a-closer-look\/"},"modified":"2013-07-03T09:47:21","modified_gmt":"2013-07-03T09:47:21","slug":"solar-pv-projections-a-closer-look","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/solplanet.net\/de\/solar-pv-projections-a-closer-look","title":{"rendered":"Solar PV projections: a closer look"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wrapper  wrapper__spacing-top-large--120 wrapper__spacing-top-tablet--80 wrapper__spacing-bottom-large--120 wrapper__spacing-bottom-tablet--80\" id=\"\">\n\t<div class=\"wrapper__anchor\" id=\"\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"wrapper__container wrapper__container-width-large--small wrapper__gutter-large--default wrapper__gutter-tablet--small\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"wrapper__inner wrapper__width-large--12\">\n\t\t\t\t\n<div class=\"block-group\">\n\t\n<div class=\"wrapper   wrapper__spacing-bottom-large--20\" id=\"\">\n\t<div class=\"wrapper__anchor\" id=\"\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\n<div class=\"block-heading\">\n\t<h2 class=\"heading heading__align--left heading__color--shaft heading__size--default block-heading__heading\">\n\t<\/h2>\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wrapper   wrapper__spacing-bottom-large--80 wrapper__spacing-bottom-tablet--40\" id=\"\">\n\t<div class=\"wrapper__anchor\" id=\"\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"paragraph paragraph__color--dove paragraph__align--left paragraph__size--default block-paragraph__paragraph\">\n\tThis year in Australia, for example \u2013 despite our most bullish attempts to project demand \u2013 it looks exceedingly likely that we will once again see more solar installed than projected.<br><br>These observations prompted me to dig out some historical forecasts from the late 1980s and 90s and do my own analysis \u2013 the likely results are nothing short of astonishing.<br><br>On average, across ten different long-range forecasts (typically ten years forward) for wind and solar PV around the world, the predictions for uptake have been consistently underestimated by a factor of ten. That\u2019s right, demand has been ten times higher than predicted. Looking at solar PV alone, the uptake has been even higher at 11.7 times the annual demand than even the wildest optimists could imagine. So I went back to my long-range forecasts for Australia\u2019s solar market to 2030 and took another look. As a forecaster, I\u2019m inherently conservative (although we always produce a range of scenarios) but I decided to go out on a limb this time and use the historical error to drive up my calculations.<br><br>A few important considerations quickly came up.<br><br>Firstly, data is now much more widely available, computed much faster and we have more historical trends to go by.<br><br>Secondly, the Australian industry has been growing from a base of close to zero, so large growth was inevitable in the early days and a slowing of that rate is equally inevitable as the market grows.<br><br>Thirdly, there is the issue of penetration both in terms of building stock and also grid penetration rates.<br><br>All these factors should reduce the quantum of variation in future forecasts, barring the completely unforseen. So for the sake of the argument, let\u2019s not predict that we will all be out by a factor of ten times. Instead, let\u2019s be ultra-conservative and simply predict that demand will be twice what we reasonably expect.<br><br>The Australian Energy Market Operator has accepted a high range of 18 GW of cumulative rooftop PV by 2030, and their caveats around this high range are already emerging. So potentially, using historical error as the basis, this could become 36 GW, and in all probability more, once non-rooftop solar is included too. So we\u2019ll round up to 40 GW.<br><br>From: ecogeneration<\/p>\t<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":""},"categories":[420],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.7.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Solar PV projections: a closer look | Solplanet<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The power of the sun is the future of our planet. Solplanet makes solar for everybody. Easy-to-install, reliable and user-friendly inverters.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/solplanet.net\/de\/solar-pv-projections-a-closer-look\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Solar PV projections: a closer look | Solplanet\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The power of the sun is the future of our planet. Solplanet makes solar for everybody. Easy-to-install, reliable and user-friendly inverters.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/solplanet.net\/de\/solar-pv-projections-a-closer-look\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Solplanet\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-07-03T09:47:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Maggie Zhang\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Maggie Zhang\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/solplanet.net\/de\/solar-pv-projections-a-closer-look#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/solplanet.net\/de\/solar-pv-projections-a-closer-look\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Maggie Zhang\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/solplanet.net\/de#\/schema\/person\/fbf2b60a85fa5d569da9a1bed6d83d36\"},\"headline\":\"Solar PV projections: a closer look\",\"datePublished\":\"2013-07-03T09:47:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2013-07-03T09:47:21+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/solplanet.net\/de\/solar-pv-projections-a-closer-look\"},\"wordCount\":6,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/solplanet.net\/de#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Industry News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"de-DE\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/solplanet.net\/de\/solar-pv-projections-a-closer-look#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/solplanet.net\/de\/solar-pv-projections-a-closer-look\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/solplanet.net\/de\/solar-pv-projections-a-closer-look\",\"name\":\"Solar PV projections: a closer look | Solplanet\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/solplanet.net\/de#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2013-07-03T09:47:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2013-07-03T09:47:21+00:00\",\"description\":\"The power of the sun is the future of our planet. 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